Page 13 - Perspective Paper

rainfall still remains poorly understood (Meesters et al., 2009). The inadequacy of knowledge on the water
cycle constitutes a major challenge in foreseeing future water availability and distribution in the context of
climate change (Marotzke et al., 2017). The uncertainties that exist in the global understanding of the water
cycle is a direct threat to our ability to safeguard the physical processes that ensure the functioning of these
intricate natural systems and their capacity to maintain fragile equilibria. An important example of a
knowledge gap is the geographical origin of inland rainfall and the biophysical circumstances required to
ensure the transport of moisture from ocean land inwards. It is, however, becoming increasingly clear that
we must not underestimate the value of vegetation cover in this process and in particular that of near-
continuous coastal forests (Makarieva et al., 2009; O’Connor et al., 2021; Sheil & Murdiyarso, 2009).

Most studies on the impact of land cover change on the climate rely on climate models, which have become
increasingly sophisticated over recent years (Sheil, 2018) and have supported the understanding of large-
scale processes such as large-scale mean precipitation and surface temperature patterns (Flato et al., 2013).
However, making predictions based on models inherently assumes these models embody the key
interactions that determine the outcome of changing conditions. Over years of research it has become clear
that small-scale processes play an important role in governing circulation responses, which cannot be
explicitly represented in today’s climate models (Marotzke et al., 2017). Disentangling the complex web of
causal relationships that make up Earth System is challenging. Simpler climate models that simulate only one
primary process can help to understand observations and perform sensitivity analyses.
As highlighted by Marotzke et al. (2017) and Wang-Erlandsson et al. (2022) a crucial strategy in achieving
breakthroughs in the realm of climate science and Earth system resilience is to adopt an agile, collaborative
approach that transcends disciplinary boundaries and promotes open data sharing principles. As such, the
free-flow of ideas may reveal important insights and allows for the cross-examination between simulations
and observations. Particularly, future research would benefit from interdisciplinary collaboration between
experts in the field of land surface processes (e.g. plant physiology, soil physics) and those in the field of
atmospheric science (e.g. boundary layer dynamics and cloud physics) (Beamesderfer et al., 2022). Key gaps
include ABL height and diurnal/seasonal dynamics, the bi-directional interactions between surface water
(soil/plant moisture) and the atmosphere and land-aerosol-atmosphere interactions (including cloud
dynamics and convective precipitation) (Beamesderfer et al., 2022).
Additionally, targeted observations through ground-based or space-borne monitoring schemes are critical to
characterise the physical mechanisms of small-scale processes and for model improvement. Sheil (2018) also
emphasizes the common mismatch between models and observations, but additionally calls attention to the
limitations of conducting only small-scale field studies, as these will not adequately represent large-scale
atmospheric behaviour. This stresses the need for extensive field experiments supported by advanced
monitoring schemes.

Globally, more research on these effects would contribute to the development of afforestation ‘best-
practices’ – which could ensure that both local and global effects of land-cover transitions are favourable
and the resultant overall radiative forcing contributes positively to Earth’s energy balance.

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